Bullish Case
- Earnings forecasts for 2017 are higher – for now.
- For much of the year, earnings forecasts were constantly being lowered. Now they look like they’re stabilizing – for now.
- Interest rates, inflation and oil prices remain low, and are good for the economy and asset prices.
- Oil and many commodity prices have recovered relieving concerns of defaults of energy and commodity related companies.
- Credit spreads are improving, narrowing.
Bearish Case
- China and the global economy are slowing
- Brexit is making the global economic outlook cloudy. The repercussions are being felt in China, Japan, the Middle East, and the Americas.
- Isis and the Middle East create uncertainty, instability and danger
- Earnings continue to be revised downward for 2016.
- Markets are now overvalued (see forecasts below).
- Global central banks, and especially ours, are running out of effective monetary bullets to help our economies, especially if we have a global recession or major financial crisis
- The collapse in oil prices is hurting many energy based economies (Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria….). Low oil prices are also hurting the U.S. energy industry and we’re seeing more layoffs, bankruptcies, and banks are worried about more energy loan defaults.
- This economic and market cycle is maturing and may enter a decline phase (some indexes have entered decline, bear markets).
- U.S. elections are causing concerns among economists, analysts and investors.
2011 & 2016 Parallels and Divergences
I’ve read several articles and have seen several “experts” on cable financial news comparing this market to the market of 2011. There are some similarities, but I doubt that this market will follow the same script as 2011.
There are a few similarities:
International events causing global market disruptions including U.S. markets.
The international events in 2011 included 1. The Arab Spring 2. Grexit and questions about the viability of the Eurozone. 3. The triple tragedies in Japan (earthquake, tsunami, and the nuclear crisis).
In 2016 we do have global concerns 1. China slowing and changing economy 2. Middle East and ISIS (Arab Spring did not have the promise protesters expected and wanted) 3. Brexit. I believe the mistake a lot of investors are making is paying too much attention to U.S. events and markets, and not enough to international events, as these are where the major risks are for U.S. investors. Brexit is a good example where international events are having major disruptions to markets. Brexit could have long-term consequences for the global economy, especially if other countries follow Brexit.
Just as international events impacted the U.S. economy and markets in 2011, international events are having an impact on our markets, and will probably have an impact on our economy.
- The markets did have major corrections in 2011 and 2016.
Here is a chart of the S & P in 2011:
2011 & 2016 Parallels and Divergences
I’ve read several articles and have seen several “experts” on cable financial news comparing this market to the market of 2011. There are some similarities, but I doubt that this market will follow the same script as 2011.
There are a few similarities:
International events causing global market disruptions including U.S. markets.
The international events in 2011 included 1. The Arab Spring 2. Grexit and questions about the viability of the Eurozone. 3. The triple tragedies in Japan (earthquake, tsunami, and the nuclear crisis).
In 2016 we do have global concerns 1. China slowing and changing economy 2. Middle East and ISIS (Arab Spring did not have the promise protesters expected and wanted) 3. Brexit. I believe the mistake a lot of investors are making is paying too much attention to U.S. events and markets, and not enough to international events, as these are where the major risks are for U.S. investors. Brexit is a good example where international events are having major disruptions to markets. Brexit could have long-term consequences for the global economy, especially if other countries follow Brexit.
Just as international events impacted the U.S. economy and markets in 2011, international events are having an impact on our markets, and will probably have an impact on our economy.
- The markets did have major corrections in 2011 and 2016.